.
I would react to the LeBacle myself. But Tom Lea, a LeBron fanatic, said it better than I could. So here is his quick-hit reaction from the other night. Enjoy. -AJ
(Quick note: This puppy is about 2,000 words long. I just thought I'd warn you ahead of time.)
I'm not going to beat around the bush. I am upset.
But before I proceed, I want to make sure everyone that has any interest in reading my humble opinion doesn't take me being upset as me being irrational in the heat of the moment, or even something as harsh as being pissed off. Because it's simply not the case. In fact, upset really isn't the word I'm looking for. It's something in between being upset and disappointed. In essence, I feel like I was played for the past seven years.
I know I have no ties to LeBron and I probably never will (as much as I hate to say it). I know I am not one of his friends, his boys, his mentors or anything of that sort and I know all of you already know that I am nothing but a simple fan of his. So when I say I feel played, I say it knowing full-heartedly that nothing in my life is going to change because of his decision. Nothing he did is going to have any direct effect on my life other than the fact that I'll be watching a lot of Heat games in the coming years.
I am cognizant that there is a fine line between being a rational fan and one that gets carried away during major events (a devastating loss, bad coaching move, or in this case, a earth shattering free agent move), so I'm trying to offer a couple of thoughts that stem just from my fandom.
I don't want this to become a shouting match or anything along those lines. I just know my phone has been blowing up over the past hour and instead of texting everyone the same thing over and over, I am just going to type up my thoughts on this. Besides, it's much easier this way.
So here I go....
By packing up the bags and leaving Akron/Cleveland for the lovely beaches of Miami, I have learned a couple of things about my favorite player. And it's these things that have led me to be a bit disappointed. Since I don't feel like writing a book on the subject and knowing there are a million directions I could take this monologue, I'm going to limit my rant to just a couple of things that really hit me hard when he made the decision. Even though the fact that he's going to be in a different uniform, with different colors and a different surrounding hasn't really set in yet.
First of all, and I go back to my use of the word played, for the seven years LBJ has been in the league I have thought he was a man on the brink of accomplishing something special. He led an absolutely horrid team (the 2007 Cavs) to an NBA Finals appearance as really the only player worth a damn on the roster. Without him, that team probably doesn't make the playoffs and if it does, it leaves in the first round.
When I think back to that game in Detroit (Game 5) during the Eastern Conference Finals, I think of a 22 year old kid dominating NBA veterans to the tune of 27 of his teams final 28 points. And I remember him elevating his game to Jordan-esque levels and seeing his competitive nature wreak havoc on a stunned-and favored-Pistons team. That game, eventually a double-overtime win, was one of the more transcendent performances I can ever remember seeing. He was remarkable. He literally willed his team to victory (excuse the cliche).
And from that performance I thought I witnessed a sense of ability, a sense of entitlement and a sense of competitive nature being born. I thought LeBron developed the mindset that some of the NBA greats had. I thought he finally got that super-competitive drive that made him feel like he was destined to revive a city that hasn't seen any sort of champion in 50 years. I thought he wanted to be that guy. I thought he would do whatever it takes to deliver his hometown the glory that has been escaping it for decades. I thought he was up to that challenge.
That's why I always thought he would stay in Cleveland. That's why up to five minutes before the show tonight I said he would remain there. And that's why my heart sank a little bit when the word Miami slipped out of his mouth on national television. I realized that he didn't have what it takes to deliver a title by himself and the reality sank in that he needed the help of a couple of all-world players in order to accomplish something I (admittedly selfishly) wanted to see him do as the lead character.
I know that team will be good with those three running the ship. But I also know that in order to win, and to win at the highest level in the NBA, you need a full squad of five guys, plus about three or four more role players that give you things off the bench. For all the hype Kobe, Gasol and Odom get, they have guys like Fisher, Bynum and Artest doing work at their side.
For all the hype KG, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce get, that Celtics team—the one that held a 13 point second half lead over those same Lakers in game 7— would have never been in the series if it wasn't for the play of Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine (I shouldn't have brought him into it, haha).
Who are going to be the nine guys that the Heat get at minimum contracts to support those three guys?
That's what worries me about it.
They say you can see a train wreck coming a mile away. Well, I see a train wreck headed for South Beach and it's about a year away. I just don't see it working. Five guys comprise a team, and for as great as Bosh, Wade and James are, they also have Mario Chalmers and Dexter Pittman filling out their starting five. Who? I know.....
During the show, LeBron made the point that nobody knew of the Rondo's, Perkins and Davis' of the world when the Celtics started their big three. And that eventually the big three helped mold those role players into what they are today and what they were in June. But they also weren't minimum contract guys that they had to bring in during the midst of the summer like the Heat are going to have to do.
Who is going to want to take those contracts, for the minimum, one year before a probable lockout? People need to get paid. I know that's not what it's all about, but for guys that are seeing their careers wind down, it might very well be. So it's going to be hard to win a title right away without the necessary parts in Miami.
At least in Boston, or LA for that matter, the parts of a team were in place. The parts to this team revolve around three players. And if one of them goes down (Wade) or they don't function as well as they historically have, things aren't going to go over well just because the pressure and expectations are going to be that high. It's championship or bust in South Beach.
Which leads me to my next point.
Probably more than anything else, I am saddened that all three of these players are going to have to switch their style of play for this marriage to work.
The thing I liked about James as a Cav was the fact that he had the ability to go off on any given night. He had the ability to do something truly incredible every time he stepped foot on the court. I suppose he still has that chance but it's not going to be as exaggerated as it once was.
Now, with those other two guys, he's going to sacrifice some of the things that made me absolutely love him. He's unselfish so it probably won't be that big of a deal, but I'm selfish and it's going to be hard to see his points per game dip to 21 or 22 a night instead of 30. He's an exciting player, probably the most exciting in the league, and now he's going to be tamed down offensively. As a fan, I feel like I am kind of being cheated out of his potential.
The same can be said about Wade. The way he recklessly does things on the court, the way he fills up the score cards, the way he scores the ball can all be thrown out because he's going to make sure everyone is involved. Essentially, we're putting a cap on all of the abilities these three players have showcased over the past seven years. And as a true basketball fan and a lover of the game, this makes me very sad. I understand these three can do special things together, but it will come at the expense of one of them, individually, doing something that will make my jaw drop, call my friends frantically, or relish the fact that I truly saw something amazing.
I know it's all conjecture at this point because we haven't seen this thing put into motion yet. But in a purely speculative manner, I am nervous that we are handicapping the potential greatness that all three of these players have in them. We are no longer going to see the same players—Lebron as a Cav, Bosh as a Raptor and Wade as a Heat? (not sure how that works)—instead, we will see a group of guys that are scared to take over the team at the expense of everyone else and at the expense of fearing failure.
That, in essence, is why I am somewhere between upset and disappointed in regards to tonight's developments. I don't feel as though I am being irrational and I surely don't want anyone thinking I suddenly switched over to a LeBron hater. I haven't. I still really, really like him and I am excited (albeit reserved) about his future.
In the end, the fact that he's going to be viewed as a villain by many makes me turn sour. He said it's a business move and I can understand that. I just think there were better options. Go to Chicago if it's truly about winning. Stay in Cleveland if it was truly about loyalty. Go to Miami if you feel it's your best shot at winning a title or multiple titles. So for that, I don't blame him.
I just wish he had been able to accomplish some of the things I know he is capable of as the main guy, the main attraction. I just don't like that he admitted his failure by bolting for the 'on paper' potential of a team of superstars. And I really don't like the fact that he is going to have to change his game to make this work.
I really want LeBron to succeed and I hope all the best is still ahead for him. I know this had to have been taxing for him and that it's a major weight off his shoulders. I just hope he isn't tainted by this as a player, although I fear he will be.
(Sorry for the length of this and for the weak ending. I am gassed and I wasn't really sure how to wrap this thing up. Thanks for reading.)
-Tom
Showing posts with label Cleveland Cavaliers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cleveland Cavaliers. Show all posts
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Monday, June 29, 2009
U-S-A! U-S-A! C-H-O-K-E-D! and more Case of the Mondays
Posted by
AJ
at
11:07 PM
.
More Riverside Rants in the middle of a Wimbledon that might have a couple Andys in the semis and Williamses in the final...
-AJ
More Riverside Rants in the middle of a Wimbledon that might have a couple Andys in the semis and Williamses in the final...
- Boy, there is just nothing better than a bunch of loud, drunk Americans being wheeled into one bar on a bandwagon to watch the rarest of rarities: a relevant USA soccer game, huh?
- There were a surprising amount of Brazil soccer fans there, too, which made things fun. Particularly when the American team went up 2-0, the bar went bazooka-bonkers twice, and the poor Brasilian hooligans looked like they were contemplating how to go into hiding for the next 28 years. I loved the part where our table started up the "U-S-A! U-S-A!" chant on both occasions.
- Of course, just like any low-budget horror movie, it ended badly. When Brazil scored the game-winner with 10 minutes to go, the table of yellow-and-green-clad patrons started mocking us with their own version of the U-S-A chant. I won't reprint what qualifier they added; this is a family sports-and-hot-chicks blog.
- The funny thing is, I seem to recall reading a story about how much the rest of the world hates that U-S-A! chant. Like it's beyond obnoxious to any foreigner. I think I read that during the Olympics, maybe.
- I guess I can appreciate that, in all honesty. The chant is plain, it's simple, and it basically boasts, "we're better than you" in a sing-songy fashion. I suppose the foreign-language chants hold less personal entitlement to them, so whatever.
- But it was all in good fun, and no bad blood lingered between the two fan groups on the way out or anything. Besides, our group forgot about the not-so-devastating result halfway on our commute from Brats to the Terrace; we wouldn't have wanted our Brazilian amigos to stay depressed until the 2036 World Cup.
- And now, our Riverside Rant of the Week. Enjoy.
- Three big-time trades went down in the Association right before the Draft. Well, big-time if you're a fan of the Cavs, Magic or Spurs. Not so much if you're sticking with the Suns, Nets and Bucks.
- Hmmm...three playoff teams make moves to get better, while three non-playoff teams give away top players for basically nothing. Anybody still wonder why the same 16 franchises make the postseason each year?
- The East champs, Orlando, picked up Vince Carter, which kind of was all right, since they couldn't hang on to Rafer Alston and the Nets do receive Courtney Lee in return. But I don't know what New Jersey intends to do with Alston - who just "point"ed the Magic to the NBA Finals - seeing as Devin Harris isn't about to give up time.
- Then the stupid Bucks-Spurs deal, which involved five players - four of them completely irrelevant. Rip Jefferson is now in San Antonio, in exchange for bag of balls.
- Not the actual basketballs; just the bag. An empty bag.
- Bruce Bowen will get bought out, Kurt Thomas is now useless and Amir Johnson is terrible. The Milwaukee Bucks: ready to rise? More like ready to slap that snooze button and get another 45 minutes of sleep.
- "The Bucks' incentive to make the trade is largely financial," according to the AP story. A true statement, if you leave out the 'largely' part. Milwaukee GM John Hammond said this gives the Bucks "much-needed options in the short- and long-term."
- What short-term? Somehow, giving away a 20-point scorer and deadly shooter for whom you just traded the farm 18 months ago is good in the short term? Replacing him with a 36-year-old center and an overpaid, fourth-string forward helps your team in the short term?
- John, John...just call it what it is in your pretty little statement. "Our franchise is hemorraging money and selling out fans, so we're just going to put more money in our already-fat pockets. Thank you, and go to hell."
- And then, that Shaq trade. You might say, 'the Cavs shouldn't start printing up a banner just yet; the Diesel is running out of gas at age 39.' This may be. But they got him basically for free.
- The Cavs sent Ben Wallace (probably retiring) and Sasha Pavlovic (probably getting bought out and returning to the Cavs) to the Suns. Wait, scratch that sentence. Neither of them are going to Phoenix. So why'd they do it?
- "For the Suns, the O'Neal trade is a straight salary dump." Ah, I see. A team that won 60 games LAST YEAR made a blockbuster deal that made zero basketball sense to it. The economy didn't crumble THAT fast, fellas.
- Here's the actual rant: I understand there are reasons behind cutting salary. Heck, the Nuggets made a straight salary dump with Camby and ended up with the greatest season in franchise history. But they were already a good team, and LA was trying to add pieces. That deal made some sense to both sides.
- Now we're seeing these teams basically GIVE UP. And why? Because the owners wanna slash expenses in a bad economy?
- That's the part, good readers, that makes me the sickest. The next owner who makes any sort of B.S. statement about tightening his belts should take a gander at the unemployment lines in their city. Or read the disturbing headline that 19.7% of May 2009 college grads are now employed within a month of commencement, compared with 51% in May 2007. Or do any other sort of actual research involving impoverished families who can barely afford the day.
- Then tell us, your paying customers, about tightening your belts.
- It's this simple, you 120 owners: you're filthy rich. And you own a sports team. If you don't care about winning and care about making money, sell your team. There's got to be a few more Mark Cubans out there that will spend, spend, spend to win.
- Because that's what makes sports go around: 30 teams in each sport that are extremely competitive, not 8 haves and 22 have-nots. Enough of these excuses.
- One more thing: if you type the words "salary dump" into Google Search, followed by the word "NFL", "NHL" or "MLB", you get somewhere in the range of 25,000 maybe 30,000 results. If you type in "salary dump NBA"? 40 grand.
- David Stern, you have a call from a dirty, disgusting little secret on line one.
- As my cohort in crime Andrew Petersen found today on Twitter, Chase Daniel was pleased to announce that Missouri was "one of two schools to produce a first-round pick in the NFL, NBA and MLB drafts this spring."
- Why, that's nice, Chase. Showing support for your alma mater like that.
- Should I even mention that both North Carolina AND Southern California are in the group with Missouri? Or would that force us to learn whether or not Chase can count past two?
- Ah, screw it. Mizzou-rah.
- Wimbledon picks, or "Wimby" if you're a ruh-tard headline writer at ESPN: Andy Roddick gets past Lleyton Hewitt in a solid five-setter, Andy Murray eases past JC Ferrero in three, Novak Djokovic knocks off Tommy Haas in four, and Roger Federer squeezes past Ivo Karlovic in a surprisingly entertaining four sets.
- On the women's side? I think I mentioned a couple Williamses who might have a bit of success. Dinara Safina might be the worst No. 1 of all time, and Elena Dementieva is the eternal "play to my seed and just go home" player.
- Go see the Hangover. Then see it again. But if you pass up Transformers 2 to see Hangover a second time, at least sneak into the sequel for the first 10 minutes.
- Two words: Megan Fox. Two more words: her legs. And that's all I have to say about that.
-AJ
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Where will AMAZING happen this year?
Posted by
AJ
at
9:43 AM
.
(While you read, I highly recommend playing one of the two videos belows. Yes, I've given you a choice today! Either one works effectively. You don't even need to watch either video. Just jack up your volume meter, and listen to the awesomeness to get you FIRED UP while you read.)

Completing my second-round, conference final and 2009 NBA FINALS picks...plus, we've got a small, informal bracket challenge going on, so I'll list those selections too.
Oh, and from Part I, I had a belated Brooklyn Decker picture, and didn't want to disappoint my faithful readers by losing in the mix. Here it is. Damn you, Andy Roddick with your 155-mph serve. Go back to Maria, why don't ya.
But I digress. Bulls-Celtics tip off in exactly 102 minutes, so let's get to it. Time to party. But first, your choice of video. Option 1...
...or if you prefer, here's a little Kanye to get you in the mood...
Remember how much trouble Atlanta gave Boston last year? That was fun. Why couldn't it happen again? I feel like the Hawks are THE most underrated team in the NBA - and that says something, folks, coming from a guy that follows probably the most disrespected team in the league. At least people are talking about the Nuggets. The Hawks won 47 games this year!! That's one less than Utah, two less than NO, and three less than Dallas ... and guess what? The East, from top to bottom, was much better than the West in 2008-09! (That's right, I said it.) The Hawks had much less gimmes than those three, and kept pace. So why did I get bombarded with constant talk about those Western teams, but never heard a peep about Atlanta? I thought it was just a myth that Hawks fans don't exist. Or maybe Hawks fans are the myth.
So I'll go out on a small limb: Atlanta will be the second team this year to beat Cleveland at the Q (the Philly garbage doesn't count; the Sixers beat a JV team masquerading in Cleveland uniforms) and make this an interesting series. But Cleveland will recover and advance.
Prediction: The LeBrons in seven games
2) Celtics vs. 3) Magic
This series lost its luster when KG went down. Unfortunately, the cover story for SI this week didn't convince me that Dwight Howard really, really, really, really wants the NBA title this year; something that can be said for KG, LeBron and Kobe. But you know what? I'm a man of my word (even when that word is totally, totally wrong; see, Northwestern-Wisconsin hoops, Jan. 31) and I was all set to pick Orlando to make the conference finals back when Boston had us fooled that KG was just fine and dandy. So to heck with my fears from the SI article; I'm not just picking Orlando. I'm picking a shocker.
Prediction: Man-Children in four. That's right: a sweep. (This is why I stay away from Vegas.)
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
1) Lakers vs. 4) Trail Blazers
I keep hearing that Portland's the only team with a chance to knock off the Lakers, due to the mini-rivalry and Los Angeles' alarmingly predominant struggles in Rip City. Well, goodie. Maybe Denver won't have to knock off Kobe after all (okay, enough homerism). I just don't see it, though. That Rockets series should take a ton out of Portland, and while they'll be the nation's darling underdogs against the Lakers, I'm having trouble understanding how Portland, a weak road team, is supposed to put up any sort of fight at the Staples Center in four tries (if it gets that far). Portland's inexperience, particularly opposed to LA's first-round foe Utah, could make this easier for the Lakers than we all think. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.
Prediction: Black Mambas in five
2) Nuggets vs. 6) Mavericks
When you look at head-to-head records among all Western Conference playoff teams, there are a few three-game sweeps, but only two four-game sweeps. Lakers over Houston is one; the other is...Nuggets over Mavericks? Not what you would expect, now is it? Not to discount three-game dominance over one team, but if you only had to go to the other team's building once, it's a little empty. Not as empty as, you know, using steroids to juice your home run numbers, but still.
My guys did win all four meetings with B-dubs' squad, but to be fair, the total margin in those four wins was 16 points ... and 10 of them were in the Dec. 15 effort. Thus, the Mavericks have every reason to believe they can beat Denver, the way they're playing and with the confidence they would certainly harbor by conquering the Spurs. However, the Nuggets match up well at pretty much every position; it's no mistake that Denver did win each of those games. Plus, David Stern hates Mark Cuban, so Denver has that going for it.
Prediction: Birdman flies high in seven
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
The teams only met three nights in the regular season, with the home team winning each time. Orlando actually had two of those. That doesn't necessarily help the Magic, who only got one experience dealing with the Q. (By the way, that's Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, for those who keep wondering. I just really like that moniker.) By this point, the loss of Jameer Nelson has got to be hurting the Magic; and I don't think the Cavs will drop one to Orlando in Cleveland. Don't be thrown by the number of games I predict; this will be a tight, tight series.
Prediction: Title-Starved City in five
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS - Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
The series everyone wants to see. The Nuggets' fans because it means Chauncey and Carmelo have spearheaded a deep playoff run, and the Lakers' fans because, well, the Nuggets don't have much of a chance of stopping LA from setting up the series everyone REALLY, REALLY wants to see.
Prediction: Dream Crushers...er, Revenge Seekers in six
2009 NBA FINALS - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Everyone is picking the Lakers to win the title. It's not a bad pick at all. Kobe has the best overall supporting cast (and it's not even close) among the MVP candidates, he's the best closer in the game which is huge during playoff time, his team is super-experienced, we all seem to have forgotten that Phil Jackson has been here before. And if these two teams played one game, for it all, at a neutral site, I'd probably be picking Los Angeles too.
But I think I'm smitten with 39-2*. (Asterisk indicates one garbage loss that did not feature real Cleveland team.) You don't just waltz into Cleveland and win games, with that crowd so desperately wanting a championship and so desperately wanting LeBron to retire a Cavalier ... or at least deliver a title before he leaves.
I think Games 1 and 2 are the most important. Remember, at this stage of the playoffs, it's 2-3-2 time. If the Lakers can steal one at the Q, then they can calmly take a "one-game-at-a-time" approach back at home, and try to get three in a row to send LeBron and company back to Ohio with the Finals completed and Kobe clutching his fourth championship trophy. But if the Lakers can't....it becomes that much tougher to believe that LA can definitely win all three at Staples, knowing they still have to go back to Cleveland and find a way to win a game.
Count me among the believers. The Witnesses. LeBron is about to prove who's really the best in the game.
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers in six games
Unofficial Bracket Challenge 2009
AJ's Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Lakers, Denver, Dallas, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Orlando, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Cleveland beats Lakers in six
B-dubs' Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Chicago, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Dallas, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Orlando, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Cleveland beats Lakers in seven
Justin Petek's Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Denver, San Antonio, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Boston, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Lakers beat Cleveland in six
Zach Sundelius' Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Denver, San Antonio, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Orlando, Lakers beat San Antonio
NBA finals: Lakers beat Cleveland in seven
Tom Lea's Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Denver, Dallas, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Boston, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Cleveland beats Lakers in six
(While you read, I highly recommend playing one of the two videos belows. Yes, I've given you a choice today! Either one works effectively. You don't even need to watch either video. Just jack up your volume meter, and listen to the awesomeness to get you FIRED UP while you read.)

Completing my second-round, conference final and 2009 NBA FINALS picks...plus, we've got a small, informal bracket challenge going on, so I'll list those selections too.
Oh, and from Part I, I had a belated Brooklyn Decker picture, and didn't want to disappoint my faithful readers by losing in the mix. Here it is. Damn you, Andy Roddick with your 155-mph serve. Go back to Maria, why don't ya.
But I digress. Bulls-Celtics tip off in exactly 102 minutes, so let's get to it. Time to party. But first, your choice of video. Option 1...
...or if you prefer, here's a little Kanye to get you in the mood...
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
1) Cavaliers vs. 4) HawksRemember how much trouble Atlanta gave Boston last year? That was fun. Why couldn't it happen again? I feel like the Hawks are THE most underrated team in the NBA - and that says something, folks, coming from a guy that follows probably the most disrespected team in the league. At least people are talking about the Nuggets. The Hawks won 47 games this year!! That's one less than Utah, two less than NO, and three less than Dallas ... and guess what? The East, from top to bottom, was much better than the West in 2008-09! (That's right, I said it.) The Hawks had much less gimmes than those three, and kept pace. So why did I get bombarded with constant talk about those Western teams, but never heard a peep about Atlanta? I thought it was just a myth that Hawks fans don't exist. Or maybe Hawks fans are the myth.
So I'll go out on a small limb: Atlanta will be the second team this year to beat Cleveland at the Q (the Philly garbage doesn't count; the Sixers beat a JV team masquerading in Cleveland uniforms) and make this an interesting series. But Cleveland will recover and advance.
Prediction: The LeBrons in seven games
2) Celtics vs. 3) Magic
This series lost its luster when KG went down. Unfortunately, the cover story for SI this week didn't convince me that Dwight Howard really, really, really, really wants the NBA title this year; something that can be said for KG, LeBron and Kobe. But you know what? I'm a man of my word (even when that word is totally, totally wrong; see, Northwestern-Wisconsin hoops, Jan. 31) and I was all set to pick Orlando to make the conference finals back when Boston had us fooled that KG was just fine and dandy. So to heck with my fears from the SI article; I'm not just picking Orlando. I'm picking a shocker.
Prediction: Man-Children in four. That's right: a sweep. (This is why I stay away from Vegas.)
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
1) Lakers vs. 4) Trail Blazers
I keep hearing that Portland's the only team with a chance to knock off the Lakers, due to the mini-rivalry and Los Angeles' alarmingly predominant struggles in Rip City. Well, goodie. Maybe Denver won't have to knock off Kobe after all (okay, enough homerism). I just don't see it, though. That Rockets series should take a ton out of Portland, and while they'll be the nation's darling underdogs against the Lakers, I'm having trouble understanding how Portland, a weak road team, is supposed to put up any sort of fight at the Staples Center in four tries (if it gets that far). Portland's inexperience, particularly opposed to LA's first-round foe Utah, could make this easier for the Lakers than we all think. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.
Prediction: Black Mambas in five
2) Nuggets vs. 6) Mavericks
When you look at head-to-head records among all Western Conference playoff teams, there are a few three-game sweeps, but only two four-game sweeps. Lakers over Houston is one; the other is...Nuggets over Mavericks? Not what you would expect, now is it? Not to discount three-game dominance over one team, but if you only had to go to the other team's building once, it's a little empty. Not as empty as, you know, using steroids to juice your home run numbers, but still.
My guys did win all four meetings with B-dubs' squad, but to be fair, the total margin in those four wins was 16 points ... and 10 of them were in the Dec. 15 effort. Thus, the Mavericks have every reason to believe they can beat Denver, the way they're playing and with the confidence they would certainly harbor by conquering the Spurs. However, the Nuggets match up well at pretty much every position; it's no mistake that Denver did win each of those games. Plus, David Stern hates Mark Cuban, so Denver has that going for it.
Prediction: Birdman flies high in seven
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
The teams only met three nights in the regular season, with the home team winning each time. Orlando actually had two of those. That doesn't necessarily help the Magic, who only got one experience dealing with the Q. (By the way, that's Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, for those who keep wondering. I just really like that moniker.) By this point, the loss of Jameer Nelson has got to be hurting the Magic; and I don't think the Cavs will drop one to Orlando in Cleveland. Don't be thrown by the number of games I predict; this will be a tight, tight series.
Prediction: Title-Starved City in five
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS - Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
The series everyone wants to see. The Nuggets' fans because it means Chauncey and Carmelo have spearheaded a deep playoff run, and the Lakers' fans because, well, the Nuggets don't have much of a chance of stopping LA from setting up the series everyone REALLY, REALLY wants to see.
Prediction: Dream Crushers...er, Revenge Seekers in six
2009 NBA FINALS - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Everyone is picking the Lakers to win the title. It's not a bad pick at all. Kobe has the best overall supporting cast (and it's not even close) among the MVP candidates, he's the best closer in the game which is huge during playoff time, his team is super-experienced, we all seem to have forgotten that Phil Jackson has been here before. And if these two teams played one game, for it all, at a neutral site, I'd probably be picking Los Angeles too.
But I think I'm smitten with 39-2*. (Asterisk indicates one garbage loss that did not feature real Cleveland team.) You don't just waltz into Cleveland and win games, with that crowd so desperately wanting a championship and so desperately wanting LeBron to retire a Cavalier ... or at least deliver a title before he leaves.
I think Games 1 and 2 are the most important. Remember, at this stage of the playoffs, it's 2-3-2 time. If the Lakers can steal one at the Q, then they can calmly take a "one-game-at-a-time" approach back at home, and try to get three in a row to send LeBron and company back to Ohio with the Finals completed and Kobe clutching his fourth championship trophy. But if the Lakers can't....it becomes that much tougher to believe that LA can definitely win all three at Staples, knowing they still have to go back to Cleveland and find a way to win a game.
Count me among the believers. The Witnesses. LeBron is about to prove who's really the best in the game.
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers in six games
Unofficial Bracket Challenge 2009
AJ's Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Lakers, Denver, Dallas, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Orlando, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Cleveland beats Lakers in six
B-dubs' Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Chicago, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Dallas, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Orlando, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Cleveland beats Lakers in seven
Justin Petek's Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Denver, San Antonio, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Boston, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Lakers beat Cleveland in six
Zach Sundelius' Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Denver, San Antonio, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Orlando, Lakers beat San Antonio
NBA finals: Lakers beat Cleveland in seven
Tom Lea's Bracket
First-round winners: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Lakers, Denver, Dallas, Portland
Conference finals: Cleveland beats Boston, Lakers beat Denver
NBA finals: Cleveland beats Lakers in six
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